Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-21 23.983988 26.144124 28.481928 31.212322 34.329382 37.795615 41.967814
2025-12-28 20.541803 23.463207 26.847261 31.104698 36.387126 42.821164 51.403337
2026-01-04 18.208460 21.563774 25.664448 31.147810 38.453851 48.110676 62.312898
2026-01-11 16.619180 20.274675 24.946465 31.530464 40.880025 54.217860 75.815576
2026-01-18 15.179153 18.956677 23.960046 31.322196 42.356929 59.194125 89.005514
2026-01-25 14.027202 17.866623 23.108916 31.117685 43.715683 64.173777 103.681331
2026-02-01 13.123983 17.008569 22.457741 31.070736 45.241357 69.671954 121.160899
2026-02-08 12.320627 16.206267 21.785556 30.872017 46.437582 74.803913 139.887370
2026-02-15 11.615304 15.478682 21.141495 30.614916 47.454810 79.790778 160.465721
2026-02-22 10.998474 14.828399 20.547358 30.352296 48.392223 84.809433 183.613242
2026-03-01 10.485229 14.292108 20.077388 30.232092 49.554435 90.566243 212.072067
2026-03-08 10.016771 13.789298 19.614600 30.063191 50.580267 96.276186 244.202272
2026-03-15 9.823890 13.706678 19.834486 31.160411 54.412555 109.970012 316.291003
2026-03-22 9.387055 13.212481 19.336873 30.884813 55.320111 116.650306 369.004290
2026-03-29 9.030298 12.823736 18.986196 30.847411 56.752303 125.305111 442.353670
2026-04-05 8.765993 12.567142 18.839737 31.186002 59.110850 137.604293 556.319902
2026-04-12 8.433526 12.178742 18.434100 30.962595 60.095260 146.105373 665.867054
2026-04-19 8.129184 11.819950 18.055193 30.752717 61.081264 155.100908 803.896730
2026-04-26 7.870785 11.524001 17.768010 30.702408 62.472823 166.243642 1000.830593
2026-05-03 7.610175 11.210703 17.428184 30.505057 63.447046 176.384775 1235.871680
2026-05-10 7.359767 10.902553 17.078258 30.251347 64.230426 186.271856 1530.567175
2026-05-17 7.125105 10.610566 16.740659 29.992695 64.963387 196.465934 1918.127300
2026-05-24 6.922839 10.365593 16.476791 29.874296 66.092486 209.245567 2514.242955